MONETARY POLICY IN A NON‐REPRESENTATIVE AGENT ECONOMY: A SURVEY

It is well known that central bank policies affect not only macroeconomic aggregates, but also their distribution across economic agents. Similarly, a number of papers demonstrated that heterogeneity of agents may matter for the transmission of monetary policy to macro variables. Despite this, the mainstream monetary economics literature has so far been dominated by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with representative agents. This paper aims to tilt this imbalance towards heterogeneous agents setups by surveying the main positive and normative findings of this line of the literature, and suggesting areas in which these models could be implemented. In particular, we review studies that analyse the heterogeneity of (i) households’ income, (ii) households’ preferences, (iii) consumers’ age, (iv) expectations and (v) firms’ productivity and financial position. We highlight the results on issues that, by construction, cannot be investigated in a representative agent framework and discuss important papers modifying the findings from the representative agent literature.     

ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

Food choice models and their relation with food preferences and eating frequency in the Polish population: POFPRES study

A sample of 9339 subjects aged 13–75, living in the six macro-regions of Poland rated the preferences of 140 various food products, eating frequency and factors influencing food choice. Four groups of consumers were found: “consumers susceptible to advertising and seeking novel healthy products” (33.2% of the sample), “consumers not taking care of their health” (25.4%), “consumers not susceptible to advertising and taking care of their health” (32.5%), and “consumers insensitive to sensory attributes of fruit and vegetables” (9.0%). Among factors influencing the food choice, sensory and functional factors were significant, and health and price – moderate. Advertising was generally denied as an important factor in food choice. The food choice motives were highly dependent on age and gender, and to a lower extent – on region of residence, size of place of residence, economic condition and education level. Women/girls more often showed pro-health behaviours in food choice, choice motives, preferences and food intake.     

External and Internal Factors Motivating Outsourcing of Business Services by Meeting-Industry Companies: A Case Study in Krakow,Poland

The aim of this article is to evaluate the external and internal factors motivating the selection of business services to be outsourced by key meeting-industry (business tourism) players, with a particular focus on knowledge-intensive business services. The case-study method was adopted in the article to analyze the motivation behind outsourcing of knowledge-intensive business services by meeting venues and event companies in Krakow (Poland). The results confirm that event companies tend to subcontract out core services connected with the organization, promotion and/or management of events, event services, and technical support for events.     

Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?

Since the onset of the financial crisis significant interest rate spreads have arisen between euro area countries, both for public and private debt. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular, we focus on reducing the imbalances that arose between the core and peripheral members of the euro area in the first decade of its existence. The idea is that stable positive spreads in peripheral countries could have decreased domestic demand, preventing the boom–bust cycles that plagued these economies. They could also prevent such developments in the future. We construct a panel model for euro area countries and estimate the relationship between real interest rates and the current account balance. Next, we use the estimated parameters to perform simulations. We find that spreads on real interest rates of 0.6–5.5 percentage points would have been necessary to stabilize external positions of the four peripheral euro area member countries.     

The Use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in Tourist Information and Promotion of the Polish Carpathians in Foreign Tourism Markets

The recent years have been a time of rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in tourism. The objective of this article is to analyse and assess the use of ICTs in tourist information and promotion of selected municipalities in the Polish Carpathians, the largest region of mountain tourism in Poland. Particular attention was paid to the activities taken by DMOs, local entrepreneurs and cultural institutions. The use of ICTs in the Polish Carpathians is at a relatively advanced level, but still not sufficient enough to make these solutions a fully effective tool in building a strong regional brand in the international tourism markets.     

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data

In this paper, we develop a methodology for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators, based on business survey data. We estimate a large set of models, using an autoregressive specification, with regressors selected from business and household survey data. Our methodology is based on the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates method. Additionally, we examine the impact of deterministic and stochastic seasonality of the business survey time series on the outcome of the forecasting process. We propose an intuitive procedure for incorporating both types of seasonality into the forecasting process. After estimating the specified models, we check the accuracy of the forecasts.